1. Collect the market
We pull prices from every sportsbook and prediction market we track, refreshed through the day. A quote that goes stale is dropped, so a price you see is a price that was recently live.
Methodology
How the analytics work, step by step.
Most betting tools hand you a pick and ask you to trust it. We show the work. Every price on Unlimitable comes from one pipeline, every step is explained here, and the worked example below is arithmetic you can check by hand.
The pipeline
From market prices to a graded bet
2. Find the fair price
We remove each book's margin with the power method. When a sharp book has posted the market, its de-vigged price leads. Otherwise we take the median across independent books, and books run by the same desk vote once. A market needs a minimum number of independent opinions before we price it: four for NBA props.
3. Price it for you
We compare every book's price to the fair price at the books licensed in your state, after your state's per-bet fees. A bet reaches the board only when its value after fees clears a minimum edge.
4. Add the context
Beside each bet you see our model's full range of outcomes for the player, who is out tonight and how minutes move, matchup data and game environment. These explain the spot. They are shown for context and never change the fair price.
5. Grade every bet
Every posted bet is graded twice: from the final score, and on closing line value, whether our price beat where the market closed. A member's saved bets are graded the same way, in their own record.
A worked example
One bet, checked by hand
A player's Over 24.5 points is priced -110 on both sides at one book. Another book offers the Over at +110.
| Step | Working | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Implied chance of each side | 1 / 1.909 at -110 | 52.4% each |
| The book's total | 52.4% + 52.4% | 104.8% |
| Remove the margin | 52.4% / 104.8% | 50% each, fair +100 |
| Value of the +110 Over | 0.50 x 2.10 - 1 | +5.0% before fees |
Then your state's per-bet fees come off, if any, and the bet shows only if what is left clears our minimum edge. This is an example with round numbers, not a live price.
The numbers on screen
What each number means
Fair price
The market's estimate of a bet's true chance with the margin removed, shown as odds and as a chance.
Edge after fees
How much a book's price beats the fair price, after your state's per-bet fees. Green clears our bar. Negative edges are shown too, so you can see where the value is not.
Projection
A full range of outcomes for the player, not one number: a count distribution fit on his own game logs, weighting recent games more, with minutes adjusted for teammates who are out.
Injury news
Injury reports are polled every few minutes near tip. A change in status is flagged on the board, with a note when a book has not moved its line yet.
Game environment
For the NFL, each team's projected passing and rushing yards for the week, from models fit on earlier seasons only and anchored to the market's team totals, with a tier from Freezing to Hot.
Fire
A 0 to 100 score for how good tonight's spot is for a player's stat: the matchup, pace, team scoring and minutes. It describes the spot and never predicts a result.
Closing line value
Whether the price we posted beat where the market closed at tip. The best long-run sign a price edge is real, graded on every bet.
What we do not do
We do not promise wins
A price edge is a long-run advantage, not a forecast. Losing bets and losing days happen, and they are graded the same as the wins. Some nights nothing clears our bar, and "no edges today" is an answer, not a failure. We do not accept wagers, and our analysis is information, not financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
Questions
Frequently asked questions
What is a fair price?
The fair price is the market's own estimate of a bet's true chance once the sportsbook's margin is removed. If Over and Under both sit at -110, each side implies 52.4%, which adds to 104.8%. Remove the extra 4.8% and the fair chance is 50% each, a fair price of +100.
What is the vig?
The vig, or juice, is the margin a sportsbook builds into its prices so both sides add to more than 100%. We remove it with the power method, which handles favorites and longshots better than simple scaling, to recover the fair probabilities.
What is closing line value?
Closing line value, or CLV, measures whether the price we posted beat the price where the market closed at tip. Beating the close over many bets is the best long-run sign a price edge is real, so we grade every bet on it as well as on the final score.
Do you promise winning bets?
No. We do not promise wins, locks or profit. A price edge is a long-run advantage, losing bets and losing days happen, and every bet is graded the same way, win or lose. Some nights nothing clears our bar, and we say so.
Which sportsbooks and states are covered?
We price every bet at the sportsbooks and prediction markets licensed in the state you choose, after that state's per-bet fees. Pick your state in the nav and the board shows only the books you can use.
How fresh are the prices?
Prices refresh through the day and every board shows a prices-as-of time. A quote that goes stale is dropped, and injury reports are polled every few minutes near tip.
Is Unlimitable a sportsbook?
No. We do not accept wagers or handle bets. Unlimitable publishes betting analytics and information. You place bets with a licensed sportsbook of your choice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.